Lay the draw
Anyone who’s looked into betting systems for football would have surly come across the infamous ‘Lay the draw’ system. This system comes in many different guises, but all revolve around the same central theme, to lay the draw while the game is 0-0 and then back the draw once a goal has been scored. People who sell this system claim their variation of ‘Lay the draw’ will make you a fortune in weeks, forum detractors will tell you it’s a road to betting bank ruin. So what’s the truth?
The truth is the central theme has various flaws, this is universally accepted. The reason people have the gall to sell a system where the general consensus is it is flawed is they accept these problems but offer what they call a "fool proof" method around these flaws. If you decide this is a system you want to try you will also need a great Back/Lay calculator to make sure you green out for the best profit
The most obvious problem that crops up is the game might remain 0-0. One solution offered to overcome this is to back the 0-0 score line in the correct scores market. The bet should only be large enough to ensure a break even book should the 0-0 score arise. Unfortunately as good as this sound it quickly become apparent that if an early goal is scored the fluctuation in the price isn’t always sufficient to make a trade that will pay for the bet placed on 0-0.
Another method for the 0-0 problem is to employ a stop-loss, either trading out at a specific time during the match or at a set price. This isn’t rocket science as a stop-loss should be the first thing investigated with any trading system, and if this route is taken good discipline is paramount.
Another flaw raises its ugly head when the underdog scores first. At first thought a goal should be a good thing. But, depending on what time the goal was scored and the strength of the favourite, the draw odds can shorten significantly. Meaning a decision needs to be made, to trade out at a loss or sit it out hoping the favourite doesn’t score. The solution being as simply as only pick evenly matched teams.
An early goal can also cause problems. Although a successful trade should be made, quite often the draw price doesn’t lengthen very much, meaning minimum profit. While any profit in gambling is a positive, a system needs to be looked at long term. And these small gains might not cover any losses. This of course may not be a problem if a stop loss is implementing to minimize losses or the method of match selection doesn’t throw up many draws. But it is defiantly something that needs consideration. A solution to eliminate this problem is to only lay the draw at half time, assuming the game is currently 0-0. This ensures a greater price movement when a goal is scored and your liability will naturally be lower.
Only picking evenly matched team is one method of match selection as pointed out earlier but this isn’t the only method seller of lay the draw systems use to hawk their wares. There’s too many of these match selection methods to cover them all here but by far the most popular one is to select game where there is a high probability of goals. It usually suggested that a look at the under/over 2.5 goals market is the best place to start, with most stating the over 2.5 price should favourite.
In conclusion this is no fool proof get rich quick system; in fact you’ll find most people lose money with laying the draw systems. This doesn’t mean using a combination of the outlined variations and match selection some people aren’t making money, but they would have put in all the hard work of back testing their system and paper traded it before jumping in.
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